Analysis of rice production trends in ten rice production centers in Indonesia
Keywords:
Rice Production, Forecasting, Quadratic Model, Food Security, Production TrendsAbstract
Rice production plays a strategic role in meeting food and economic needs in Indonesia, considering that rice is the staple food for the majority of the population. This study analyzes rice production trends in the 10 largest provinces in Indonesia during the period 2009-2023, and identifies the most effective forecasting model to predict future rice production. The quadratic model is identified as the most appropriate forecasting model for most provinces, as evidenced by the high R-squared values, such as in West Java (80.09%), North Sumatra (75.30%), and Aceh (72.90%). However, this model shows limitations in several provinces such as Lampung and Banten, with R-squared of 32.40% and 37.40%, respectively. Production predictions for 2024 indicate a decline in production in most provinces, except for a few that show a more stable decline.
Downloads
References
Abdullah, T. (2005). Analisis Tren dalam Runtun Waktu. Jakarta: Penerbit Utama.
Atira, S., et al. (2017). Analisis Tren Produksi Padi Sawah di Daerah Sentra Bosowa. Jurnal Pertanian, 16(1), 55-70. Atmajaya, R. (2009). Pengantar Analisis Tren. Surabaya: Penerbit Nusantara.
Arifin, Z., et al. (2022). Analisis Kontribusi dan Tren Produksi Padi di Sulawesi Selatan. Jurnal Agribisnis, 18(2), 112-127. Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2023. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2022). Statistik Indonesia 2022. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021). Statistik Indonesia 2021. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2020. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2019). Statistik Indonesia 2019. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2018). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2018. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2017). Statistik Indonesia 2017. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2016). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2016. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2015). Statistik Indonesia 2015. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2014). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2014. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2013). Statistik Indonesia 2013. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2012). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2012. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2011). Statistik Indonesia 2011. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2010). Produksi Padi di Indonesia 2010. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2009). Statistik Indonesia 2009. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Jam'an, R., et al. (2018). Analisis Tren Produksi, Konsumsi, dan Harga Komoditas Pangan Strategis di Sulawesi Selatan. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian, 14(3), 112-129.
Neter, J., Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim, C. J., & Wasserman, W. (1996). Applied Linear Statistical Models (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.Prasetyo, A. (2021). Model Peramalan Produksi Pertanian di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian, 12(2), 75-88.
Purwono, R. (2013). Padi di Indonesia: Sejarah dan Teknik Budidaya. Jakarta: Penerbit Gramedia.
Soekartawi. (1995). Pengantar Usahatani. Jakarta: Penerbit Gunung Agung. Soekartawi, et al. (2008). Ilmu Usahatani. Jakarta: Penerbit Penebar Swadaya. Sukirno, S. (2002). Teori Mikroekonomi. Jakarta: Penerbit Rajawali.
Suparman, B., & Rahmawati, I. (2020). Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim terhadap Produksi Padi di Jawa Barat. Jurnal Agroklimatologi, 8(1), 55 -67.
Suratiyah, K. (2008). Ilmu Usahatani: Teori dan Aplikasi. Yogyakarta: Penerbit Kanisius.
Widyastuti, S., & Kurniawan, D. (2019). Analisis Variabilitas Produksi Padi di Indonesia. Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian, 14(3), 99-112.
Yuliani, R., & Nugroho, A. (2018). Peningkatan Produksi Padi melalui Teknologi Pertanian Modern. Jurnal Teknologi Pertanian, 10(4), 45-60.
Yuriah, S., Ananti, Y., & Nurjayanti, D. (2024). Dynamics of the experience of sexual violence and its impact on girls in Ogan Komering Ulu Regency. International Journal of Health Sciences, 8(S1), 579–592. https://doi.org/10.53730/ijhs.v8nS1.14860
Yuriah, S., Juniarti, S., & Sepriani, P. (2023). Midwifery care for Mrs “Y” at BPM Soraya Palembang. International Journal of Health Sciences, 7(S1), 2966–2984. https://doi.org/10.53730/ijhs.v7nS1.14631
Yuriah, S., & Kartini, F. (2022). Factors Affecting With The Prevalence Of Hypertension In Pregnancy: Scoping Review. PLACENTUM: Jurnal Ilmiah Kesehatan Dan Aplikasinya, 10(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.20961/placentum.v10i1.54822
Yuriah, S., Kartini, F., & Isnaeni, Y. (2022). Experiences of women with preeclampsia. International Journal of Health & Medical Sciences, 5(3), 201–210. https://doi.org/10.21744/ijhms.v5n3.1901
Zulfikar, M., & Siregar, H. (2017). Penggunaan Model Time Series dalam Peramalan Produksi Padi. Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika, 6(2), 33 -46.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Tennessee Research International of Social Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Articles published in the Tennessee Research International of Social Sciences (TRISS) are available under Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Authors retain copyright in their work and grant TRISS right of first publication under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Users have the right to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of articles in this journal, and to use them for any other lawful purpose.
Articles published in TRISS can be copied, communicated and shared in their published form for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given to the author and the journal. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
